TORONTO – When the Toronto Blue Jays have experienced surprises this year, they’ve rarely been pleasant ones.
From Alek Manoah’s baffling collapse, to the lineup’s struggles in scoring position, the unexpected has not been a friend to the Blue Jays.
Yusei Kikuchi is an exception to that trend.
The 32-year-old has dropped his ERA nearly a run and a half (1.44) from his rough 2022 season, largely thanks to the fact his BB/9 has plummeted from a dismal 5.19 to an above-average 2.68.
All of that is impressive, but looking at his season-long numbers might be underselling the way he’s pitching, as he’s been stellar lately. Kikuchi hasn’t conceded more than two runs in any of his last six starts, and he’s coming off the first seven-inning outing of his Blue Jays career.
It’s clear that he’s doing something different in recent weeks — specifically rounding out his repertoire. Kikuchi began the year throwing a fastball, slider and changeup almost exclusively, but he’s now become a four-pitch pitcher.
Early in 2023, the southpaw introduced a curveball into his arsenal for the first time since 2019, but it was a show-me pitch that he used sparingly. Since then, its usage has crept up steadily.
While hitters have been exposed to the pitch significantly more, its effectiveness has not waned on a per-pitch basis. That seems to be because the offering is rounding into form over time by adding both spin rate …
… and vertical drop:
If we look at the characteristics of Kikuchi’s curveball based on his season averages, it looks unremarkable. Its spin rate is in the 52nd percentile and its vertical movement is 5.5 inches below average.
But, in his last start, the pitch’s vertical break (47 inches) was about average and his spin rate (2,569) was 62nd percentile. The difference is noticeable to the naked eye.
For example, this curve to Mike Trout from his April 9 start looks flat and simply can’t make it to the top of the zone, even though it was called a strike:
In his last start, another curve near the top of the zone had some nice drop to it:
Kikuchi hasn’t discovered Clayton Kershaw’s curve overnight, but it looks like an average pitch at the very least, and the results are impressive. No offering in the lefty’s arsenal has generated a better run value score (-5) or whiff rate (30.9%) than his curveball.
He seems confident in it, too. In his first 10 starts, he threw it once in a three-ball count, but in his last six he’s gone to the curve 11 times when he absolutely needed a strike.
The premise of Kikuchi beginning to integrate another effective pitch into his arsenal is encouraging for the lefty in and of itself, but his emerging curve is also playing a specific role for him.
Over the course of the season, he’s made it his go-to secondary pitch against right-handers, allowing him to lean on his changeup less often.
|
Month |
Curve usage to RHH |
Changeup usage to RHH |
|
April |
2.8% |
24.0% |
|
May |
18.3% |
20.2% |
|
June |
28.0% |
8.2% |
That’s good news for Kikuchi as his change has below-average movement both vertically (-2.1 inches) and horizontally (-5.6 inches). Righties have slugged .490 off of it this season — a far cry from the .200 they’ve managed against his curve.
We haven’t seen enough of Kikuchi’s curveball to know precisely how effective the pitch will be in the weeks to come, but it’s looking good. For a pitcher who can lose the handle on an offering or two at times, having another reliable arrow in the quiver seems like it’ll be useful.
There are weaknesses this new development is unlikely to paper over — like Kikuchi’s high rate of home runs allowed — but it seems likely to help keep his surprisingly strong season rolling.
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