Goldman hikes crude price forecast, Barclays, Rystad warn of $200 oil

Goldman Sachs hiked its price forecasts for Brent oil saying the world could be facing one of “largest energy supply shocks ever” because of the Ukraine crisis, while Barclays said prices in its worst case scenario could top $200 a barrel.

Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy also said Brent could rise to $200 if Europe and the United States banned Russian oil imports.

Goldman raised its 2022 Brent spot price forecast to $135 per barrel from $98 and its 2023 outlook to $115 from $105.

More than half of Russia’s March loadings so far were reported unsold and, if sustained, this could represent a 3 million barrel per day (bpd) fall in Russian crude and product seaborne exports, the fifth largest disruption in a month since World War Two, the bank said in a note.

The United States and Europe have not imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, but many buyers are reluctant to make purchases to avoid becoming entangled in sanctions indirectly, while Washington has said it could act alone in banning Russian oil imports.

Russia, the world’s second biggest oil exporter, ships about 7 million bpd of crude and oil products.

“In the short term, coping with such a supply shock would require the combined help of global strategic reserves, core-OPEC, Iran and higher prices to reduce consumption,” Goldman said.

Barclays said disrupting most of Russian seaborne crude supplies in its worst case scenario could push prices above $200, although it did not revise its 2022 Brent forecast saying “the situation remains highly fluid.”

Oil prices climbed above $130 on Tuesday on expectations the United States would formally ban Russian oil imports.