There are lots of great storylines for this year’s Final Four. Of course it starts with Coach K’s final run and the fact that Duke is playing North Carolina for the first time in the NCAA Tournament. It is pretty hard to get away from that one.
From there we can go to Villanova and the fact that you can make a very valid argument for the Wildcats being the best program in America right now. All they do is win right? It is not always pretty and they might not wow NBA types but no team is tougher.
Then there is Kansas, the lone No. 1 seed left in the field. Like Duke, they seem to have figured things out and look at dangerous as ever thanks to the emergence of guard Remy Martin. Before the season started some pegged him the player of the year in the Big 12. That ticket was trashed pretty quickly but he could easily be the most outstanding player at the Final Four. How’s that for a comeback?
Here is a look at the two games on Saturday night.
Final Four Best Bets
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday April 2, 2022
6:09 p.m. ET
Caesar’s Superdome
Spread: Wildcats +4.5 (-110), Jayhawks -4.5 (-110)
Total: 133.5
Moneyline: Wildcats +160, Jayhawks -190
Best Bet
Kansas -4.5
Villanova followed a predictable path to get here. Their four wins were by a decreasing margin, which is what is supposed to happen when the competition gets better and better. This is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in America but they are not very big and they are not very deep. The narrative of losing Justin Moore to injury is more of a depth concern than fear of the loss of their second leading scorer. They can replace him in the starting lineup capably but get even thinner off the bench.
Kansas is going to present “massive” concerns for Villanova with their size and their talent. They are going to be overvalued off their dominating second half performance against Miami last weekend but that was kind of what we were looking for most of the season. This team’s “A” game is as good as anyone’s and like Villanova it is a very veteran group. They want to play fast but can still win even when things get a little more rugged — see their win over Providence.
The line on this game seems pretty fair. Villanova is going to do what they do and hope for the best. They won a grinder against Houston and if they can get this game to look like that one they will be in it. I love the Wildcats but I don’t like them in this spot unless the line moves a lot between now and tipoff. Kansas’ size and depth to keep the team fresh is going to win the day. Look for an even contest to have that one spurt which gives Kansas more than enough of a working margin to win pretty comfortably.
Predicted Score: Kansas 74 – Villanova 78
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday April 2, 2022
8:49 p.m. ET
Caesar’s Superdome
Spread: Tar Heels +4 (-110), Blue Devils -4 (-110)
Total: 151
Moneyline: Tar Heels +165, Blue Devils -185
Best Bet
Duke -4
These teams obviously have some history and will be adding to it this weekend. A lot of that is irrelevant to this contest though.
North Carolina can draw confidence from an interesting tourney run that included wins over two teams that made last year’s Final Four in Baylor and UCLA. After those victories, they were fortunate to see St. Peter’s as their next opponent and not Purdue, a team that beat them during the season. This is a good North Carolina team, and they did beat Duke to close the regular season but their ceiling feels capped. Big man Armando Bacot is a very nice player but rugged bigs don’t generally shine this time of year.
Duke is the most talented team left in the field (sorry Kansas). They are loaded with NBA talent and seem to have finally figured out how to play winning basketball. There are two keys to this game, the first is getting off to a better start as this young team has struggled to find the right level of intensity at the beginning of games. Once find their rhythm their natural talent should win the day. If you are making a list of the best players on the floor the first three or four are in Blue Devil uniforms.
These teams both beat each other on the road this season and both games were comfortable wins. All of the power ratings have North Carolina climbing with their impressive wins while Duke has been static in the Tournament. That is something we can use to our advantage in this spot. I would have made this number a little higher but the oddsmakers did not want to be too heavy on one side or the other. Like the game above the superior talent gets the comfortable win.
Predicted Score: Duke 80 – North Carolina 69
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