FIH Pro League: Permutations and combinations that can get India the title

By Charlie On Jun 14, 2023

Indian hockey team, which finished with 30 points from 16 games, winning eight matches, drawing three and taking three shoot-out bonuses, occupies the numero uno rank in the FIH Pro League 2022-23 table.

Pro League is a hockey league run by the International Hockey Federation (FIH). It involves the top nine ranked sides in the world, with the team at the bottom of the table getting relegated to the Nations Cup and the team winning the Nations Cup taking their place in the next edition of the league.

The top-ranked side in the league table is crowned champion. For every win, a team gets three points; for every draw, one point. But after the game ends in a draw, there is a shoot-out, and the winner of that shoot-out gets an extra point.

This is the fourth edition of the league. India is playing in the league for the third time. In the previous two editions, Team India finished fourth and third in 2020-21 and 2021-22, respectively.

While India has played its quota of 16 games, several teams have played only eight games so far. Therefore, India could be overtaken at the top of the table.

However, India can still be crowned champions of the Pro Lague if certain things go their way. Australia, Argentina and New Zealand are already out of India’s way as they cannot get past 30 points even if they win all their remaining games.

Here’s a look at how the permutations and combinations can work to help India get its maiden title.

The Netherlands beat Spain

Spain and the Netherlands have played only eight games each and have yet to play eight more. The Netherlands (14 points) are the current holders of the Pro League title. Being the better team, the Dutch are more likely to win. If they do win both games, Spain (17 points) would remain at 17 points from 10 games, while the Netherlands would move to 20 from 10 games.

Germany beat the Netherlands

After playing Spain, the Dutch would face Germany at home. If the World Cup winners beat the bronze medalists in both games, they would move to 17 points from 10 games, while the Dutch would remain at 20 from 12 games.

Belgium lose to Australia twice and to Spain or New Zealand at least once

World Cup silver medalists Belgium currently have 12 points from eight games. The maximum they can reach is 36 points if they win all their remaining games. Let’s consider that Australia beat them twice, then the Belgians could only go to 30 points at max, i.e. equal India.

However, if New Zealand or Spain can even sneak out a draw against the Olympic champions, India can remain at the top. If Belgium loses to Spain or New Zealand, their maximum points will be 27.

Belgium and Netherlands play out draws or the leg ends 1-1

Considering that the Netherlands come into the last leg of their tie with wins against New Zealand, they would have 26 points in their kitty with two games to go. At the same time, Belgium would have two losses to Australia or at max four wins in their bag. This way, they would enter the last leg against the Dutch with 24 points.

Now, if both teams play two draws, the maximum number of points a team could get is four considering that the same team wins both shoot-outs. In that case, no team would be able to go past India’s 30-point mark. The ideal situation for India would be for both teams to win one game each. At no cost should one team win one game and win the shoot-out in the second game or win two games in a row.

Germany beat Grat Britain, and Spain at least wins the shoot-out against

The next threat to India after Belgium and Netherlands is Great Britain. The British have four games left and are only four points away from India’s tally of 30. They are currently ranked second in the points table and can get past India easily if they win at least three of their remaining four games or win two and draw the remaining two, or win one and draw the remaining three.

The only way to stop Great Britain from crossing India’s mark of 30 points would be for either Germany or Spain to beat them in two games. Given that Germans are the World Champions and higher ranked than the British, they are more likely to beat Great Britain rather than Spain.

So if Germany beats them in both games and Spain can sneak in a draw, Great Britain could end up at 29 points at max. Even if Spain cannot get the draw, the maximum the British could reach is 30 points. They would be equal to India then but might pip the men in blue on goal difference. Thus Great Britain drawing with Spain is imperative to the Indian cause.

Germany are able to win only two out of their last four games

After beating Great Britain and the Netherlands back to back, Germany would have 23 points in their kitty from 12 games.

The most challenging part of the combination comes when Germany is supposed to win only two of their last four ties. But they play two of the weakest opponents in the league- New Zealand and Spain. Since Spain has beaten the likes of Argentina, Australia and India in the past, it would not be a surprise if they beat Germany once.

Similarly, if New Zealand can sneak out at least a draw and follow it up with a win through a shoot-out, Germany could end up having two wins and a draw in their last four games. This would take them to 30 points. But given their goal difference is -1 currently, even reaching 30 points would be no threat to India.

Conclusion

Only if all the above conditions are fulfilled can India win the Pro League trophy for the first time. Otherwise, they would have to wait for another year.

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