E-way bill data shows festive surge

At the end of 24 October, 54.4 million e-way bills were raised, showing a surge from 2.17 million daily average seen in the first fortnight of October to a daily average of 2.27 million permits by 24 October as the festive season approached. This is close to the 2.29 million daily average e-way bills raised in the month of March, which had led to the highest ever Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections of ₹1.41 trillion in the subsequent month.

Taxes for the transactions reported in a month are collected in the subsequent month and figures indicate that GST collections are expected to be on an upswing for transactions in September and October. September transactions will get reflected in the taxes collected in October for which official figures are expected on Monday.

The data offers scope for optimism to policy makers who have been pinning hopes on festive demand for a pick-up in industrial activity and consumption. E-way bill data is relied upon by analysts as a high frequency indicator by economists to forecast growth trends.

The monthly economic report from the finance ministry for September released earlier this month had suggested that the ebbing second wave of the pandemic, fast-paced vaccinations and enhanced mobility had aided the recovery in September. The ministry said while agriculture continues to bolster rural demand, exports continue to offer bright prospects. According to the RBI, India’s economy may grow at 9.5% in FY22. The statistics ministry had reported a 20.1% GDP growth in the first quarter over a low base.