The researchers used a heat index that puts “dangerous” levels at 39.4 degrees Celsius, while temperatures above 51 degrees Celsius are considered “extremely dangerous” and totally unsafe for humans.
The extreme measure was originally developed for people working in scorching indoor environments, like a ship’s boiler room, and have rarely been observed outdoors, Zeppetello said.
But by the end of the century, the researcher said it was “virtually guaranteed” that people in some parts of the tropics would experience this level of heat every year unless emissions are severely curtailed, with swathes of sub-Saharan Africa and India particularly at risk.
“That’s pretty scary,” he told AFP, adding that even walking outside would be dangerous under those conditions.
“NIGHTMARISH” CONDITIONS
Earth has warmed nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius so far and current predictions based on countries’ carbon-cutting pledges would see the world far exceed the Paris Agreement’s 2 degrees Celsius target for 2100, let alone its more ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius aspiration.
In their research Zeppetello and colleagues analysed predictions from global climate models, human population projections, and looked at the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions.
They estimated that there is only a 0.1 per cent chance of limiting global average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, projecting that the world is likely to reach 1.8 degrees Celsius by 2050.
In 2100, the researchers found, the most likely global average temperature rise would be 3 degrees Celsius, which Zeppetello said would spell “nightmarish” conditions for many people.
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