As many observers predicted, much of Ukraine’s effort is being expended on trying to punch through Russian lines to reach the Sea of Azov in the southeast. Doing so would cut Russia’s land route to Crimea. One problem for Ukrainian forces is what seemed like a good idea to them was also anticipated by the Russian side.
FIGHTING CONTINUES IN BAKHMUT REGION
Some Ukrainian effort is also being expended in the Bakhmut region. In this area, Ukrainian forces seem to be trying to roll back hard-won Russian gains of recent months and with localized success.
While Ukraine was able to launch two successful counterattacks in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in 2022 that saw the recapture of significant territory, those counterattacks were launched in very different conditions than today. In both those cases, Russian troops chose to withdraw in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks – where now they are dug in and standing their ground.
The Russian army is much larger than it was in the fall of 2022 – more than 300,000 Russian troops have been mobilised since last September.
While Russian forces were caught off guard and without the resources to deal with counterattacks in 2022, this time they are ready. Russian forces have had months to prepare sometimes elaborate defensive positions in depth.
Being on the defensive also has the benefit for Russian forces of mitigating some of the supply issues they faced during 2022. Russian forces have also been making good use of equipment that in the West is seen as antiquated, but that still has considerable value in the right setting.
RUSSIAN ARMY HAS ADAPTED
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