Then, the IPCC’s baseline assumption was that current policies would keep greenhouse gas pollution rising through most of this century, before levelling out at about 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions in 2100. Global temperatures would climb by 3.7 degrees to 4.8 degrees Celsius.
That was based on a technological outlook where low-carbon alternatives would struggle to compete with fossil fuels. Hydro, geothermal and onshore wind were the only renewable technologies seen as being competitive for grid power, and then only “under favorable conditions.”
Electric vehicles received a cursory, dismissive discussion, as it was assumed they would remain too costly and niche for the foreseeable future. (In practice, it was conventional combustion engines whose sales peaked just three years later in 2017, since when they’ve been in decline.)
How times have changed. The baseline assumption this year still puts climate stability well out of reach — but in contrast to 2014’s picture, where emissions stabilise at around 100 billion tons a year around 2080, they’re now expected to level off at 60 billion tons a year around 2040.
RISE OF RENEWABLES AND GREEN TECH
That’s been driven by rapid cost declines and rising deployment of solar and wind power, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. Even before you factor in any benefits in terms of avoided climate impacts and reduced health problems, switching to a low-carbon pathway is now reckoned to be the cheaper option in terms of up-front direct expenditure.
For all the latest world News Click Here
