Foreign airlines are now gradually increasing their capacity at Changi and should eventually close the gap with SIA.
Overall capacity will also at some point catch up with demand, leading to more normal air fares, although this could take several months.
The increases in capacity are possible as manpower and terminal constraints gradually ease.
Changi’s terminal capacity will increase with the reopening of Terminal 4 in September and half of the Terminal 2 departure hall in October. Some of the Terminal 2 arrival hall has already reopened but departures are currently limited to Terminal 1 and Terminal 3, impacting Changi’s ability to add flights, particularly during peak hours.
The peak year-end travel season could lead to another surge in demand, but capacity by then should be significantly higher. With more flights added before the holiday season, Changi traffic could reach up to 70 per cent of 2019 levels in December.
Changi should have the distinction of being the largest international airport in Asia Pacific for 2022 with traffic for the year at 50 to 60 per cent of 2019 levels, but its spot in the global rankings will be well below where it was pre-pandemic due to the faster recovery in other regions.
In 2019, Changi was the seventh largest international airport in the world and the third largest in Asia Pacific behind Hong Kong International Airport and Seoul Incheon. In 2021, Changi was not even in the top 20.
The outlook for the remainder of 2022 and 2023 is bright, particularly in the Asia Pacific context. However, Changi will not be able to recover fully without the reopening of China and will likely still be at around 80 per cent of 2019 levels in 2023, while some of its peers in other regions have already reached or are now approaching 100 per cent.
Brendan Sobie is the founder of Singapore-based independent aviation consulting and analysis firm Sobie Aviation.
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