There is, in short, little for Putin to celebrate on Victory Day: In just a year of a criminal, fratricidal, ill-conceived and poorly-run military campaign, he has single-handedly set Russia back in every respect. Worst of all for a dictator who relies on threats and violence to maintain the Russian state’s status at home and abroad, his ability to set red lines has steadily eroded.
Attacks on Russian infrastructure and public figures – most recently, the prominent pro-war author Zakhar Prilepin, who barely survived a car explosion last week – have not triggered any kind of fearsome retaliation. Russia has also lost the ability to rein in its former USSR vassals, and its role vis-a-vis large Asian, Latin American and African nations looks increasingly like that of a supplicant rather than a global center of power.
A clear disconnect has emerged between the humiliations that can be dealt to Russia on and off the battlefield and its ability to respond: A nuclear strike would be out of proportion to the suffered affronts – and, short of that last trump card, Putin can’t deliver much except empty threats.
Instead of a range of escalatory options, he only appears capable of, literally, the nuclear option – one that might doom his regime, and perhaps Russia itself, by inviting a commensurate response. Resorting to that last, desperate act would not bring victory under any scenario.
What, then, could Putin say to Russia and the world on Victory Day 2023 – in reality, a day to contemplate defeat? The answer is that his words no longer matter. Winning even a short-lived, localised victory requires action, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive soon will show what, if anything, Putin’s Russia still is capable of in this department.
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