Commentary: Pentagon leaks paint gloomy picture of long Ukraine war that can’t be won but must not be lost

The flipside of the US assessment that any Ukrainian counter-offensive is unlikely to constitute a turning point in the war is that the fighting is likely to continue beyond this year. In some estimates it could last well beyond that.

There are no signs that either side is willing to give up. US estimates of casualties – among the leaks from the Pentagon – indicate more than 40,000 Russian soldiers killed in action over the past year and an additional 180,000 wounded.

On the Ukrainian side, the figures are lower – with 17,500 likely dead and 113,500 wounded troops – but still significant. Both countries now have tightened conscription rules and procedures in another sign that they are readying themselves for intensifying battles.

Equally important from a Ukrainian perspective is continuing support from its Western partners. Despite the logistical difficulties of ramping up defence industry outputs and deliveries to Ukraine, there is no indication that supplies will fall critically short and expose Ukraine to the risk of major battlefield defeats.

This is partly because Moscow also cannot muster the superior military capabilities that would be needed for inflicting such defeats on Kyiv.

CONTINUING STALEMATE

So the strategic stalemate on the ground that was established at the end of last year when Ukraine’s counter-offensive ended is likely to continue. Neither side can expect, at least not for the time being, to gain a decisive advantage.

Russia, according to some of the leaked documents, has failed to secure significant foreign military aid. Moscow therefore needs to rely on a resurgent domestic defence industry that will take time to deliver. Military production will continue to be hampered by critical shortages, especially of high-end semi-conductors, that its key ally China has so far been unable and unwilling to supply.