Three items of summit business illustrate this prioritisation. First, a decision will be taken in Madrid on “the scale and design of [NATO’s] future posture” across the whole spectrum of defence.
This was prefigured at a meeting of NATO defence ministers in mid-June and builds upon practical measures taken since February to reinforce the defence of the eastern allies.
Expect in parallel, second, some strong language on sustaining national defence budgets.
Third, the summit will be attended by leaders from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea – a clear signal that NATO is moving (politically, at least) towards coalition-building against China.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT UKRAINE?
The highlight of the Madrid summit will be an address by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. NATO is also likely to endorse a comprehensive assistance package to train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces. This is less significant than it sounds, as NATO had agreed on a similar programme back in 2016.
Extending it is clearly beneficial to the war effort, but the package should not be confused with the provision of arms to Ukraine. That is a matter for the allies individually, not NATO.
Any coordination which has occurred appears to have been ad hoc. Politically, this has been achieved through the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group and, at a technical level, via the International Donors’ Coordination Cell, located at the American Patch Barracks in Stuttgart.
The biggest contributions NATO could make to the cause of Ukrainian self-defence are currently off the table.
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