Commentary: Like the US, Asia is less than enthusiastic about another Biden term

Coming off his re-election win in Florida, one of the few Republican bright spots in the November midterm elections that saw many Trump-backed candidates defeated, DeSantis was polling neck and neck with Trump.

Since then, his trajectory has been mostly downward and he trails Trump, who is the choice of almost half (46 per cent) of Republicans by a margin of 15 points. Other declared or presumed Republican candidates including former vice president Mike Pence, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott barely register with percentages of support in the low single digits.

With almost nine months until the first presidential primary elections, there is still ample time for the field to shift for DeSantis. Yet his wobble highlights how hard it is for Republicans to gain ground against Trump. Fearful of alienating his deeply committed supporters, challengers hold their fire.

THE ONLY CANDIDATE CAPABLE OF BEATING TRUMP

For Democrats, there is a parallel dynamic of reactivity to Trump at work. Despite apprehensions about Biden’s age and fears about his low approval ratings, he is the only one who is seen as capable of beating Trump, shutting off the path for younger party hopefuls.

Certainly, Biden is credited with the party’s surprisingly good performance in November’s midterm elections. Typically, the incumbent president’s party loses substantial ground in the midterms, on average giving up 29 congressional seats. Yet under Biden, the Democrats did far better than predicted, relinquishing only nine House seats in the lower chamber House of Representatives, narrowly losing the majority and retaining control of the Senate.

Analysts attribute this to several factors including a resilient economy despite the challenges of inflation, a rejection of the extremism around the Capitol riot and election denial, the popularity of Biden policies like infrastructure investment and anger over the Supreme Court’s decision in June 2022 to roll back abortion rights.