Beijing, however, is not keen. The Chinese foreign minister’s comments about the dangers of conflict and confrontation came in the context of an explicit rejection of America’s suggested “guardrails”, which, he said, are just a way of trying to force China “not to respond . . . when slandered or attacked”.
The underlying objection from Xi Jinping’s government is that the Biden administration is trying to institutionalise US military operations that China regards as fundamentally illegitimate. As the Chinese see it, America has no business promising to defend Taiwan (a rebel province in their view) or conducting freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety.
As one Washington official puts it: “They think our talk of guardrails is like giving a speeding driver a seatbelt.”
US ASSESSMENT OF CHINA’S INTENTIONS IS BLEAK
America, for its part, sees China as the dangerous driver. US officials point to a decades-long Chinese military build-up, including the rapid growth of the country’s arsenal of nuclear weapons. China has also ramped up its military exercises off the coast of Taiwan, which look increasingly like rehearsals for an invasion.
America’s assessment of the political and strategic intentions underlying these moves is bleak. US officials believe that Xi Jinping has decided that the “reunification” of mainland China and Taiwan should be the centrepiece of his legacy. They also think he is prepared to use force to secure that goal – and that he has told his military to be ready by 2027. If that is true, putting “guardrails” in place will not be enough to secure the peace.
So, as well as trying to restart regular dialogue, the Americans are trying to change Xi’s calculations of the costs and benefits of using military force. That means working with allies to strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
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