Restraint was demonstrated all around in this incident. Russian President Vladimir Putin, for all his belligerence in Ukraine, did not take the massive risk of directly striking a NATO state. NATO did not overreact in response, despite some observers leaping to conclusions.
CAUTION ON ALL SIDES THROUGHOUT THE WAR
Ukraine’s mistake was an honest one. It is trying to defend its cities by shooting at incoming Russian missiles, and this mistake, common in warfare, only happened once. What seemed at the beginning of the week like a dangerously provocative moment will likely pass with no major change in the war.
This reflects the continuing inaccuracy of those who wish to end Western aid to Ukraine for fear it will lead to Russia-NATO escalation – or for pro-Russian political reasons.
We know now that US officials have been privately speaking to Russian officials since nearly the start of the war, particularly to discourage Russian nuclear weapons use. We also know, from China’s increasingly public statements, that Chinese President Xi Jinping opposes nuclear warfare in Ukraine.
Putin has threatened nuclear escalation since March but has not yet acted on it. He is almost certainly bluffing. Indeed, in a speech in September, he had to explicitly say he was not bluffing about nukes, because he has done so for months.
This month, he openly declared Russia would not use nuclear weapons, likely because of the pressure he was feeling from all sides not to take that escalatory step.
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