Russia’s behaviour is different. Ukraine, a sovereign state with global recognition, including by Russia, has been invaded. The Kremlin has offered its justifications, such as its historical ties with Ukraine and the way NATO’s expansion has impinged on its security concerns.
More importantly, Putin appears determined to restore Russia as a great power and rid the country of its image as the fragile heir of a collapsed USSR. In his mind, what the West has taken from Russia should be returned, and the historical indignity should be expunged.
China sympathises with Putin’s position. Following a similar logic, Xinjiang and Tibet (China’s autonomous regions) and Taiwan (a historical overhang from the Chinese Civil War) could be carved out of the People’s Republic of China merely as a result of their unique identity.
In the same vein, China, as a rising superpower, could demand Russia return its former Far East lands on the basis of historical ties, regardless of recent efforts to ease tensions. (China has no intention of doing this.)
Beijing could also escalate further the South China Sea dispute, given its relative strength compared to neighbouring Asian countries.
But Moscow has followed a “law of the jungle” logic in invading Ukraine and not even offered the pretence of adherence to international norms.
While Moscow aims to wind back the post-Cold War order and reclaim its former grandeur, Beijing wants to expand its role within the current global system.
In that respect, the Russia-China relationship is limited, and the Kremlin’s long-term strategic interests do not align with that of Beijing.
And even if Moscow can serve to distract Western attention away from China, Beijing may find it difficult to handle this troublesome Russian partner.
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