Commentary: China can use its leverage with Russia to prevent a nuclear war

SAVING FACE

Finally, Beijing could play a significant role in brokering a deal between Russia and NATO. For example, NATO could promise to halt any further expansion in exchange for Moscow agreeing not to use nuclear weapons. Such a compromise would save face on both sides.

During the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, US President John F Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev reached a similar agreement: The Soviets would dismantle their ballistic missiles in Cuba in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba again. Secretly, America also agreed to dismantle all of the Jupiter medium-range ballistic missiles which had been stationed in Turkey for possible use against Russia.

Since Moscow’s primary concern has been NATO expansion, Putin might find this option worth considering. It would be worth thinking about for NATO too. The alliance’s expansion in the face of the Kremlin’s warnings has helped push Europe to the brink of a nuclear conflict. Putin is right to conclude this is a war between Russia and the West rather than between Russia and Ukraine. As a goodwill gesture, NATO could pledge not to use nuclear weapons first against Russia or within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

In a 2018 documentary, Putin asked, “Why do we need a world without Russia in it?” The answer should be, “But where is Russia without the world?” If Putin now opens a nuclear Pandora’s box that was kept closed even during the cold war, it would be a moment of infinite stupidity. China can help the world by simply telling Putin: “Don’t use nuclear weapons, Mr President”.

Zhou Bo is a former senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and now senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and China Forum expert.