CHINA SURGE
Looking at the national level, the report found a return to pre-COVID patterns among the world top four carbon polluters, which account for 60 per cent of global CO2 emissions.
In China – which has pledged to peak its emissions by 2030, and reach net zero by 2060 – economic growth spurred by government incentives will see emissions grow 5.5 per cent this year compared to 2019, the last year not affected by COVID-19.
“The rebound in China was robust,” said Peters. “It looks like China is in a phase of strong growth again.”
India, the world’s other emerging giant, is on track for a similar percentage increase in carbon pollution, and will account for seven per cent of the total this year.
2021 emissions in the US and EU will drop 3.7 and 4.2 per cent, respectively, and their share of global emissions will stand at 14 and 7 per cent.
The wild card that could determine how quickly the world can finally bend the emissions downward is coal, the report made clear.
“Mostly it’s about coal now,” said Le Quere. “This is where the big uncertainties are.”
Very little of the trillions of dollars chanelled to post-pandemic recovery was earmarked for green development, a trend that is continuing, she said.
“IT IS POSSIBLE”
Worldwide, decarbonisation – mainly switching from fossil fuels to renewables – continues to be outpaced by the demand for energy, adding to emissions.
But the report was not bereft of positive signals.
Twenty-three countries accounting for a quarter of global emissions over the last decade – including the US, Japan, Germany, France and Britain – simultaneously saw strong growth and a significant decline in emissions, showing that the two can be decoupled.
For 15 of these nations, this held true even when the carbon emissions from the production of imported goods were included.
“This shows that these countries know how to do it, they demonstrate it’s possible.”
But the finding makes clear how daunting the Paris Agreement goals are, she added.
“If you want to reach net zero by 2050, you need to decrease emissions, on average, by 1.4 billion tonnes per year,” she said.
“In 2020, during the pandemic, we had a drop of 1.6 billion tonnes – this shows you the scale of the action required.”
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