China’s border reopening brightens recovery of Singapore’s aviation sector, but uncertainties remain: Experts

Economists agreed, with Dr Chua pointing to limited flight availability and high air fares as possible factors putting a lid on the number of Chinese tourists in the short term.

“The jump and ‘revenge travel’ should be more visible by the second quarter of 2023,” he told CNA.

CIMB Private Bank economist Song Seng Wun offered a similar outlook.

“Given China’s size, it is really the final piece of the puzzle for a recovery,” he said. 

“But we went through this phase ourselves. When everything reopened, do you rush to go out or do you remain a bit more restrained for a while more? So I think we will probably see a more meaningful impact on the travel and aviation sector after the first quarter of next year,” Mr Song said.

A GRADUAL RECOVERY

Independent analyst Brendan Sobie reckoned that China’s reopening strategy will likely be “gradual”.

“Under that scenario, the recovery in Singapore-China traffic and international traffic to and from China overall would also be gradual. This is what we have seen so far with Hong Kong – and traffic between Singapore and Hong Kong is still well below pre-COVID levels,” the founder of Sobie Aviation said.

It also remains “too early to say when China may fully reopen”, he added.

“Note that even if quarantine restrictions are lifted, it is impossible to fully recover passenger traffic without also lifting testing requirements and any other COVID-related restrictions. This is what we have also seen in markets such as Hong Kong,” Mr Sobie said.

“I think China and Hong Kong will eventually get there but when that occurs exactly is hard to predict. And until that occurs, a market such as Singapore can’t recover.”

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has said it will reinstate its passenger service to Beijing from Dec 30, operating fortnightly every other Friday. This comes nearly three years after flight services between Singapore and Beijing were suspended on Mar 28, 2020.

Throughout the pandemic, SIA has been operating cargo-only flights to and from Beijing. It was allowed to upgrade one-way Beijing to Singapore services to carry passengers twice a week in late September.

Since late September, Scoot has gradually resumed flight services to mainland China. It now operates weekly flights to 18 cities including Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou.

Mr Patel said with the resumption of some flights between China and the rest of the world, it is “significant” that Singapore moves quickly to ensure that its connectivity with China is restored. But overall, flight capacity to China will resume with a “measured approach” in line with the pace of the broader reopening.