Champions League scenarios: Guide to tiebreakers and stakes for group stage finales

It should be a fun group-stage finale in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, with four knockout round berths still up for grabs along with final seeding and Europa League playoff spots at stake.

Things promise to be especially wild in Group E, where all four teams are still alive to advance. Here’s what’s at stake on Wednesday: (1) the final Round of 16 berth in Group E and Group F; (2) both Round of 16 tickets in Group E; (3) first place in Group F; and (4) the third-place spots in Groups E-G, which guarantees a Europa League playoff ticket.

If two or more teams are even on points in any of the groups, the first tiebreakers are: (1) points in matches among tied teams, (2) goal difference in matches among tied teams, and (3) goals scored in matches among tied teams. The complete list of tiebreakers follows at the bottom of this post. We’ve worked out all the tiebreakers for every group.

MORE: Champions League draw date, seeds and rules

Tuesday’s results, Wednesday’s schedule, and the group-by-group scenarios follow:

Tuesday, Dec. 7

Wednesday, Dec. 8 

Group Matches Time (ET) TV channels Stream
Group H Juventus vs. Malmo FF 12:45 p.m. Galavision fuboTV, Paramount+
Group H FC Zenit vs. Chelsea 12:45 p.m. UniMas, TUDN fuboTV, Paramount+
Group E Benfica vs. Dynamo Kyiv 3 p.m. TUDNxtra fuboTV, Paramount+
Group E Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona 3 p.m. Univision, TUDN fuboTV, Paramount+
Group F Man United vs. BSC Young Boys 3 p.m. —  PrendeTV, Paramount+
Group F Atalanta vs. Villarreal 3 p.m. TUDNxtra fuboTV, Paramount+
Group G RB Salzburg vs. Sevilla 3 p.m. TUDNxtra fuboTV, Paramount+
Group G Wolfsburg vs. LOSC Lille 3 p.m. TUDNxtra fuboTV, Paramount+

Group A scenarios

Group A winner: Manchester City

Group A runner-up: Paris Saint-Germain

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): This was the only drama left in Group A entering the final matchday. RB Leipzig won its group finale against Man City (2-1), while Club Brugge lost to PSG (4-1). That combination of those results hands Leipzig third place and a Europa League playoff berth. 

Group A final standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Manchester City (X) 12 6 4 2 0 18 10 +8
2. Paris Saint-Germain (X) 11 6 3 1 2 13 8 +5
3. RB Leipzig 7 6 2 3 1 15 14 +1
4. Club Brugge 4 6 1 4 1 6 20 -14

Group B scenarios

Group B Winner: Liverpool

Group B runner-up: The other knockout round berth in Group B was up for grabs with the other three teams in the running. Although Porto entered the final day with a one-point lead on the other two, it was last-place Atletico Madrid which pulled off the big result by beating Porto 3-1 on the road to vault into second place. 

AC Milan couldn’t take advantage of a Liverpool team fielding several reserve players: Although the Italian side took the lead, it succumbed to a 2-1 loss at home to finish in last place. Meanwhile, Liverpool closes out the group stage with a perfect record.

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): This third-place finish will be scant consolation for Porto, which saw qualification to the knockouts slip through its grasp with the home loss to Atletico Madrid.

Group B final standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Liverpool (X) 18 6 6 0 0 17 6 +11
2. Atletico Madrid (X) 7 6 2 3 1 7 8 -1
3. FC Porto  5 6 1 3 2 4 11 -7
4. AC Milan 4 6 1 4 1 6 9 -3

Group C scenarios

Group C winner: Ajax

Group C runner-up: Sporting CP

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): Borussia Dortmund

There was nothing to play for in Group C, except for group-stage prize money (which is always greater in case of a win). Dortmund closed out its participation with an emphatic 5-0 win, while Ajax finished with a perfect record, with Ajax’s Sebastien Haller jumping ahead of Robert Lewandowski in the top scorer race.

MORE: Complete list of Champions League scoring leaders

Group C final standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Ajax (X) 18 6 6 0 0 20 5 +15
2. Sporting CP (X) 9 6 3 3 0 14 12 +2
3. Borussia Dortmund 9 6 3 3 0 10 11 -1
4. Besiktas JK 0 6 0 6 0 3 19 -16

Group D scenarios

Group D Winner: Real Madrid started the day in first place and stayed there after a 2-0 home win over Inter Milan. 

Group D runner-up: Inter Milan had to win at the Estadio Bernabeu to finish top. As it stands, the Italians settle for second place.

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): FC Sheriff Tiraspol. The Moldovans’ European adventure is set to continue in the Europa League playoffs. It closed out a memorable first group-stage participation in the Champions League with a road draw vs. Shakhtar.

Group D final standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Real Madrid (X) 15 6 5 1 0 14 3 +11
2. Inter Milan (X) 10 6 3 2 1 8 5 -3
3. FC Sheriff Tiraspol 7 6 2 3 1 7 11 -4
4. Shakhtar Donetsk 2 6 0 4 2 2 12 -10

Group E scenarios

Group B Winner: Bayern Munich

Group B runner-up: FC Barcelona or Benfica. Barcelona starts out with the two-point lead, but it has to head on the road to face the streamroller that is Bayern Munich. Meanwhile, Benfica has what should have a guaranteed home win against last-place Dynamo Kyiv. So second place should come down to what Barcelona can do in Munich.

Benfica wins the tiebreaker if they finish even on 8 points (points won in head-to-head matches).

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): This will be the consolation prize for either Benfica or Barcelona.

Group E standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Bayern Munich (X) 15 5 5 0 0 19 3 +16
2. FC Barcelona 7 5 2 2 1 2 6 -4
3. Benfica 5 5 1 2 2 5 9 -4
4. Dynamo Kiev (E) 1 5 0 4 1 1 9 -8

Group F scenarios

Group B Winner: Manchester United. The Red Devils own the tiebreaker over Villarreal.

Group B runner-up: Atalanta or Villarreal. This should be fascinating because these two teams meet in a head-to-head winner-take-all matchup in Italy. Atalanta needs to win to advance to the Round of 16. Villarreal can advance with a win or draw.

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): Third place should go to the loser of the race between Atalanta and Villarreal. The only scenario that would see Young Boys snag it is a win at Manchester United (they already beat the Red Devils at home) coupled with an Atalanta loss.

Group F standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Manchester United (X) 10 5 3 1 1 10 7 +3
2. Villarreal 7 5 2 2 1 9 7 +2
3. Atalanta 6 5 1 1 3 10 10 0
4. BSC Young Boys (E) 4 5 1 3 1 6 11 -5

Group G scenarios

Group B Winner: There are scenarios in which all four teams can finish in first place.

Group B runner-up: All four teams can finish second.

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): All four teams can also finish third.

Bottom line is this: You’ll want to familiarize yourself with the tiebreakers. We did all the homework for you.

Group G standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. LOSC Lille 8 5 2 1 2 4 3 +1
2. RB Salzburg 7 5 2 2 1 7 6 +1
3. Sevilla 6 5 1 1 3 5 4 +1
4. VfL Wolfsburg 5 5 1 2 2 4 7 -3

Group H scenarios

Group B Winner: Chelsea or Juventus. If both teams win their respective matches, which is the expectation, then Chelsea would go through since it wins the tiebreaker. Juventus fans need to hope that Chelsea drop points in Saint Petersburg.

Group B runner-up: If both of the co-leaders win, this spot goes to Juventus. Only a Juventus win and Chelsea loss or draw would see them flip flop.

3rd Place (Europa League playoff): FC Zenit has already clinched this spot since it holds the tiebreaker over Malmo FF.

Group H standings

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Chelsea (X) 12 5 4 1 0 10 1 +9
2. Juventus (X) 12 5 4 1 0 9 6 +3
3. FC Zenit (E) 4 5 1 3 1 7 7 0
4. Malmo FF (E) 1 5 0 4 1 1 13 -12

Champions League Group Stage Tiebreakers

The full list of UEFA Champions League group stage tiebreakers follow below:

  1. points obtained in group matches played among teams in question
  2. superior goal difference from group matches played among teams in question
  3. goals scored in group matches played among teams in question
  4. superior goal difference in all group matches
  5. goals scored in all group matches
  6. away goals scored in all group matches
  7. wins in all group matches
  8. away wins in all group matches
  9. disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards
  10. UEFA club coefficient

One twist to the tiebreaker rules: If there are three or more teams deadlocked on points and tiebreakers Nos. 1-3 help to separate one or more of those teams, then tiebreakers Nos. 1-3 are reapplied to any remaining teams that are still tied before moving on to Nos. 4-10.

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