The Atlanta Braves have a five game lead in the NL East and are eight games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies, but both teams are coming into this series on fire. The Braves have won six straight and the Phillies are on a six game win streak of their own.
Tonight is Game 1 of a three game series in Philadelphia that could go a long way in deciding the race for the NL East title.
For Game 1 the Braves will Spencer Strider on the mound looking to shake off a personal two start slump. Strider is now 7-2 with a 4.12 ERA and will be opposed by Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Suarez has made seven starts this year and comes into his eighth at 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA.
Atlanta is a road favorite in Game 1. Let’s check out the odds.
Braves vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Braves vs. Phillies prediction and pick
Spencer Strider is going to be better than his last two starts, that’s basically a given. He is 99th percentile in strikeout rate and 98 in whiff rate with a 3.25 expected ERA.
A pitcher with that kind of stuff doesn’t come around often and almost has to pitch at a very high level in the MLB. His ERA being north of four is a product of two bad outings in a row and the fact that he doesn’t go deep into starts so only has 78.2 innings of work in 14 starts.
He’ll be just fine against the Phillies today.
The Braves hitters will be just fine too. Atlanta is No. 1 in OPS against left-handed pitchers with a .904, over 50 points better than the second place Rays. Their 38 homers off lefties are second to only the Dodgers who have hit 39 and Ozzie Albies who is responsible for five of those is red hot right now.
Albies has an OPS of 1.330 in the past week against all pitchers with two doubles, three homers, and 10 RBI over that stretch.
Against lefties for the season his OPS is a team high 1.154 with seven doubles and a triple to go along with his five long balls. His 55 total bases against lefties is 17 more than Ronald Acuna Jr who has the second most on the team.
Ranger Suarez is a good crafty left-hander, but that simply does not fly against Atlanta. The Braves have spent their six game win streak bludgeoning the Tigers and Rockies.
They outscored those two teams 56-24 while the Phillies outscored the Diamondbacks and A’s 36-15 with 15 of their 36 runs coming in one game. What Atlanta is doing is much more impressive and I think the Braves win big in Philly tonight.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
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