‘Birds in a cage’? Logistical challenges on cards if Ukraine gets F-16s

Ukraine is closer than ever to obtaining a series of much coveted F-16s as Western allies urge the US to send Kyiv the versatile fighter jets needed to gain the upper hand in the war with Russia.  

After a meeting between British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte on Tuesday, Downing Street said both countries agreed to “work to build (an) international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F16 jets”.  

Britain’s military does not use F-16s – instead they use its successor, the F-35 Lightning II, as well as Eurofighter Typhoons. However, the Netherlands says it is ready to export some of its own F-16s to Ukraine.  

US defence company Lockheed Martin, which makes the F-16s, also indicated in late January that it was in a position to quickly supply its F-16 fighter jets to meet new demand.  

Political obstacles  

But Ukraine still needs a green light from the US, which must approve any transfers of the US-made planes, to acquire the F-16s. The Biden administration has so far refused to send fighter jets to Kyiv out offear that Ukraine might escalate the conflict by attacking Russian territory.

“The problem revolves around the crossing of the Russian border. The purpose of combat aircraft is to bring the fight to the enemy. However, there is a political obstacle here,” said defence consultant Marc Chassillan.  

Ukrainian forces “would be making very limited use of this kind of weaponry [if they do] not cross the border with Russia. Flying F-16s only within Ukrainian airspace would be like putting birds in a cage”, said Chassillan.  

Despite mounting pressure from Western allies and US members of Congress on the Biden administration over the past few weeks, the White House has yet to budge. President Joe Biden has repeatedly ruled out sending F-16s to Ukraine.  

However, the US is reportedly showing signs of softening its hardline stance on the F-16s. 

The White House is purportedly prepared to approve Western allies’ exports of their own F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, US media outlets the New York Times and CNN reported on Wednesday.  

On Friday, Biden told G7 leaders that Washington will support training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets that could be supplied to Kyiv, a senior White House official told AFP on Friday. 

Biden said the US “will support a joint effort with our allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter aircraft, including F-16s, to further strengthen and improve the capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force”, the official said. 

Britain has a track record of pushing the envelope when it comes to supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry, prompting the US to follow suit. After months of Ukrainian demands for Western tanks, London announced in February it would send Challengers to Ukraine, heralding a U-turn in Washington as the Biden administration changed its mind and agreed to send Abrams tanks.

Four NATO members – the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Norway – are currently ready to supply Kyiv with at least 125 combat-ready F-16s, according to British think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the New York Times reported on Wednesday. 

Other Western allies such as France and the UK have meanwhile offered to help train Ukrainian pilots.  

All-purpose aircraft   

Designed in the 1970s by General Dynamics, the F-16 Fighting Falcon is the world’s most widely used fighter jet. Some 4,500 have been manufactured and it remains one of the most exported models in recent years. It is currently in service in 25 countries.  

The bestselling single-engine aircraft, a favourite among US allies due to its speed and flexibility, is 15 metres long with a wingspan of nearly 10 metres.  

Over the years, the F-16 has nevertheless undergone several changes to its design since it was first created. Originally built for aerial combat, the fighter jet is now capable of doing almost everything from airspace defence to tactical bombing.   

“Over time, it has become more versatile, up to the most modern versions such as the Block-52 that was recently sold to Poland. However, if F-16s are delivered to Ukraine, they will most certainly not be the latest versionsbut rather older versions from the Belgian, Dutch, Danish or Norwegian military reserves,” said Chassillan.  

For Kyiv, procuring the F-16 Fighting Falcon would be a huge boost to Ukraine’s air force, which has been relying solely on a small number of aging Soviet MiG-29s and Su-27s since the start of the conflict.   

Ukrainian forces currently operate 187 aircraft, of which 41 are fighter jets – ten times less than Russia – according to the military analysis website Global Firepower.  

Costly logistics  

Kyiv may not have full control of Ukraine’s airspace – but it has numerous anti-aircraft defence systems that deter Russian fighter jets from conducting operations beyond the front line.  

“However, stocks of anti-aircraft missiles are beginning to run dangerously low because Ukraine is consuming so much of them. At some point, the F-16 could take over to make up for a temporary or local shortage. It’s an aircraft perfectly capable of shooting down a cruise missile,” said Chassillan.  

But Washington’s veto is not the only obstacle to the delivery of F-16s in Ukraine.   

“There is a whole range of equipment that comes with the aircraft – and as things stand there’s no guarantee it will be available,” said Chassillan.  

On top of costly logistics, ground personnel along with pilots will have to be trained.  

“There’s also the problem of the weapons these planes would be carrying. Do Western allies have enough bombs, missiles and shells for the guns? [Current] stocks are not very high. The F-16s will have absolutely no value if they don’t have weapons to go with them,” said Chassillan.  

This article has been translated from the original in French.