It was the break-up text that reverberated around the world – and it looks like it’s going to have one “inescapable” consequence for Australia.
It was the break-up text that reverberated around the world.
When Prime Minister Scott Morrison cancelled the $90 billion French submarine deal with a text message the French promptly accused Australia of treachery.
But now one of the nation’s leading foreign policy analysts has predicted it will all be for nothing and we won’t end up with any nuclear submarines for decades – if at all.
The Australian’s foreign policy editor Greg Sheridan has joined a growing band of critics who believe the nation’s submarine program is now “a shambles.”
“As things stand, it is unlikely Australia will ever get a nuclear submarine. All that we have done so far is cancel the French submarine. My guess is this delays any submarine at all by at least 10 years,’’ he writes.
“It fills me with regret to say this, but analytically the conclusion is inescapable that the nuclear subs under the AUKUS rubric will probably proceed the way of all our other submarine announcements.
“They will enjoy a brief flower of credibility before doubts creep in, critics become mobilised, the prime minister who ordered them moves on and eventually they are consigned to the dustbin for a new submarine announcement that can enjoy its brief season in the sun.
“Our submarine acquisition process remains a complete shambles and the chances of anything significant emerging from it remain remote.”
One of the significant factors is that Australia is “not interested” in leasing a nuclear submarine from the US over the next several years.
“On its own, this approach probably guarantees that nothing of consequence comes of this initiative,’’ Sheridan writes.
He suggests a better response would have been to reduce the number of French submarines we order but not completely dump the program.
“All we have done so far is cancel the French subs. As of now, we have no future submarine program at all. The Morrison government scored a diplomatic triumph in getting the Americans to agree to transfer nuclear submarine propulsion to us and in the way AUKUS was presented,’’ Sheridan said.
“The result is likely no submarine capability for us at all, except museum piece Collins boats and whatever submarine visits the Americans or Brits send along. We should have kept the French subs going, perhaps at a reduced number of six or even three, then gone nuclear in an orderly way.”
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has blasted Scott Morrison’s “extraordinary deceit” over the French submarine deal.
In a speech to the National Press Club of Australia on Wednesday, Mr Turnbull even suggested it demonstrated “bad faith” and put Australia’s national security at risk.
“The fact that there was no discussion and this extraordinary deceit that was practised, it has left us with so many unresolved questions,” he said.
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