Bowl season is here with a pair of games on Tuesday afternoon, including two conference champions dueling for the right to be the best Group of Five team this season.
The marquee matchup of the first bowl season slate of the season is the Cure Bowl between Troy and UTSA. Since opening at around a pick-em, each team has shared being a favorite at one point in time with the Roadrunners currently sitting as a small chalk in the Friday afternoon affair.
Bowl season kicks off with an 11:30 game in Nassau, Bahamas for the aptly named Bahamas Bowl between UAB and Miami (Ohio).
Here are our best bets for the pair of bowl games on Friday:
Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB Prediction and Pick
This is a brutal matchup for the RedHawks, as evident by the double-digit spread in a bowl game. Miami (Ohio) won’t have Brett Gabbert under center after he hit the transfer portal. Run-first signal caller Aveon Smith will be QB1 for this one.
While Smith has experience this season, the Miami (Ohio) offense struggled all season, scoring more than 27 points just three times this year and rank 130th in success rate and 121st in EPA/Play.
They will struggle to keep up with a potent Blazers offense that will be without talented running back Dewayne McBride (1,713 yards and 19 touchdowns) but still has a fine backup in Jermaine Brown Jr (859 rushing yards) and a capable quarterback in Dylan Hopkins. Overall, UAB is 14th in terms of EPA/Play this season and this Miami (Ohio) offense won’t be able to match that output.
Ultimately, UAB has too much firepower in this one for their MAC opponent to keep up with. The Blazers scored 35 or more in five games against FBS foes, and I think they put up similar in this game as well, covering the double-digit spread.
PICK: UBA -11
Troy vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick
This game is lined as close to a coin flip, and I agree with that as this is a matchup between the vaunted UTSA offense that is top 15 in EPA/Play against a Troy defense that has been nails all season and is 30th in terms of EPA/Play.
Harris leads an efficient bunch that averages more than three points per drive, but this Troy defense is built unlike many opponents the Roadrunners have faced in Conference USA. The Trojans’ defense is top 10 in points allowed per drive and has a stifling defensive line that is top 15 in sacks this season and allows about three yards per carry. Further, Troy’s defense is top 10 in explosive pass defense.
UTSA’s defense does struggle with big plays, but they are strong down-to-down with a solid defensive line that generates tackles in the backfield — 3st in TFL and top 20 in defensive line yards.
Troy likes to win ugly; they have won five of 10 games by scoring 23 or fewer points. While it will be tough to keep down UTSA’s defense all game long, can they play this game in the 20’s? Both teams are top half nationally in terms of red zone touchdown percentage and I think we see both defenses show out and this game stays under the total.
At over 55 (a key number), this is an under or pass for me in a game that should be hotly contested between two competitive ball clubs.
PICK: UNDER 56.5
For more bowl season picks, make sure to check out The Early Reed, featuring ESPN’s Chris “The Bear” Fallica
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