Analyzing how Winnipeg fell from conference leader into tense wild-card race

On Jan. 15, the Winnipeg Jets were 29-14-1 and on top of the Western Conference. Coach Rick Bowness was pushing all the right buttons in his first season behind the bench. After missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 2017, it appeared that the Jets were back on track.

Fast forward to Wednesday. The Jets, 14-17-2 since mid-January, are barely holding on to the second wild-card spot in the West. Bowness is calling out his players publicly. The good vibes are gone. What happened? 

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Many of the Jets’ underlying numbers over the past two-plus months have held relatively steady. Scoring chances for and against per game in all situations, for example, are practically identical. Winnipeg’s ability to finish those chances, however, has taken a nosedive. Through Jan. 15, the Jets had scored on 5.9 per cent of their shot attempts, tied for seventh in the NHL. Since then, they have a league-worst 4.2 true shooting percentage.

That decline has been most felt on the power play, which has converted 13.9 per cent of its opportunities over the past 33 games, compared to 24.2 per cent in the first 44 games. It is not simply because of bad shooting luck. The Jets’ shot quality on the power play has dropped from 0.28 expected goals per two minutes to 0.18. Simply put, an increase in lower-percentage shot attempts has diminished the effectiveness of the Jets’ power play.

On the other end of the ice, Connor Hellebuyck has not been superhuman. His 9.05 goals saved above expected through Jan. 15 were a critical component of the Jets’ first-half success. He is at 1.63 GSAE since then, which is solid. The Jets, however, are not a complete enough team to compensate for even a slightly above average version of Hellebuyck. They need him to be elite to stand a chance.

Bowness’ personnel decisions have come into question. Perhaps the most puzzling is his usage of Nikolaj Ehlers, whose 11:58 of 5-on-5 ice time per game since Jan. 17 is ninth among Jets forwards despite consistently tilting the ice in Winnipeg’s favour. Over that span, Ehlers leads Jets forwards with 3.09 scoring chances, 5.01 carry-outs, 5.22 carry-ins and 1:23 of possession time per 20 minutes at 5-on-5.

Instead of Ehlers, Bowness has chosen to lean on other veterans, such as 36-year-old Blake Wheeler, who recently snapped a 21-game goal drought. It seems counterintuitive to limit the playing time of a high-end play driver when the team is struggling to score.

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The drop-off in offence, combined with Hellebuyck’s dip in performance, has shone a harsh light on the Jets’ limitations. Even if they qualify for the playoffs, they will likely be a decided underdog in their first-round series.

Tough decisions are on the horizon. Pierre-Luc Dubois is a restricted free agent who has been connected to the Montreal Canadiens for some time. Mark Scheifele, who cast doubt on his future with the Jets at the end of last season, is one year away from free agency, as are Hellebuyck and Wheeler.

Regardless of what happens in the coming weeks, it feels like an end of an era in Winnipeg.

All stats via Sportlogiq

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