A strange revolt in Russia: Is this the end of Putin?

Who are the main players in this drama?

There’s one character central to this saga: Prigozhin. A businessman-turned-warlord, he heads the Wagner Group that has played a key role in Russian military operations in Ukraine and Syria. Prigozhin is close to Putin and his Wagner Group has been a key participant in the Ukraine war. However, he has been at odds with key military commanders like Defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov over the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin has accused these top commanders of bungling the war and of starving his troops of the supplies they need to fight effectively.

So, what exactly happened?

On Friday, Prigozhin accused the Russian military of launching a military strike on his troops. On Saturday, his men took over the town of Rostov-on-Don, which serves as the military headquarters for Russia’s southern region. Prigozhin said his troops were on a “march for justice” and at one point they were reported headed toward Moscow. This led to intense defensive preparations. However, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko interceded prompting Prigozhin to say his troops were turning back to avoid “Russian bloodshed”. Prigozhin will also be headed to Belarus, according to the Kremlin.

How did Moscow respond to talk of a coup?

This was one of the largest insurrections against Moscow in decades. Experts noted that the military seemed helpless. Putin called Prigozhin a “traitor” and vowed to crack down on the uprising. Russian state media reported that security forces had been placed on high alert. Critical facilities, government and transport infrastructure were given enhanced protection.

What was the revolt about?

Experts are unsure about Prigozhin’s goals. One school believes he was manoeuvring for more power against his rivals in the defence ministry. Indeed, one of his key demands was the removal of defence chief Gerasimov and minister Shoigu. Those who see the move as a power play say Prigozhin’s decision was triggered by a move by the defence ministry to take over the Wagner Group. Others speculate he intended to challenge Putin but backed off in the absence of support from key political players.

What’s next in this rather strange saga?

Observers are unanimous that Putin is weakened. His image as a leader with an iron grip is under a cloud. Labelling Prigozhin a traitor and then cutting a deal with the Wagner group is being seen as a sign of political weakness. Some speculate this incident may trigger a challenge to his power by other strongmen who are better placed than Prigozhin to take over. However, it is unclear if any of the existing players can oust Putin, who has ruled Russia for over two decades. In short, it’s unclear what this saga this means for Russia.

Updated: 26 Jun 2023, 01:01 AM IST