Inflation Comes Under RBI’s Tolerance Zone, Eases To 11-Month Low of 5.88% In November; IIP Contracts

CPI Inflation For November, IIP Data For October: After remaining above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent, the retail inflation in India during November eased to an 11-month low of 5.88 per cent with food prices seeing sharp cooling, according to the latest official data released on Monday. Inflation in rural areas in November 2022 cooled to 6.09 per cent, while that in urban areas softened to 5.68 per cent. This is the second consecutive month to see easing in prices.

However, India’s industrial production contracted by 4 per cent in October, mainly due to a decline in the manufacturing sector output and subdued growth in mining and power generation.

However, with 6.88 per cent, the inflation comes under the RBI’s 2-6 per cent band after remaining beyond it for 10 months consecutively. In October, India’s retail inflation had eased to a three-month low of 6.77 per cent. In September, the inflation had accelerated to a five-month high of 7.41 per cent. Before that, the retail inflation had stood at 7.04 per cent in May, 7.01 per cent in June, 6.71 per cent in July, and 7 per cent in August.

According to the latest data from the National Statistical Office (NSO), inflation in the food basket, or the Consumer Food Price Index, decelerated to 4.67 per cent in November this year, compared with 7.01 per cent in October. In September, the food inflation, which is responsible for nearly half the CPI basket, had stood at 8.60 per cent.

Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, said, “November CPI inflation, much lower than expected, dipped to 5.9 per cent, with food prices momentum softening sharply compared to the last few months. However, core inflation remained sticky at slightly above 6 per cent. We continue to see CPI inflation around 6 per cent till February 2023 before dipping sharply to 5 per cent in March and to around 4.5 per cent in 1QFY24.”

Rakshit added that the inflation trajectory is likely to be slightly below the RBI’s latest estimate. The case for a pause in the February policy itself will get stronger, especially as the next few CPI inflation prints possibly remain below 6 per cent.

“However, with the focus increasing on sticky core inflation, the February policy will be a tough choice between further tightening and a prolonged pause, especially if global and domestic growth impulses start softening. The skew, for now, remains towards a last 25 bps hike followed by a prolonged pause,” Rakshit said.

IIP Contracts 4%

India’s industrial production contracted by 4 per cent in October, mainly due to a decline in the manufacturing sector output and subdued growth in mining and power generation, according to official data released on Friday. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown 4.2 per cent in October 2021.

As per the IIP data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector’s output declined by 5.6 per cent in October 2022. The mining output rose by a meagre 2.5 per cent and power generation increased by 1.2 per cent during the month.

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