Why Arsenal CAN win the Premier League… and why they won’t! Will inexperience catch up with them?

Victory over Leeds on Sunday means Arsenal have matched their best league start, dating back to 1903-04, with Mikel Arteta’s side winning nine of their opening 10 matches.

The last four teams to have enjoyed such a fine start have gone on to win the title. 

So, DANIEL MATTHEWS asks, can Arsenal join them?

Arsenal have made their best ever start to a Premier League season after beating Leeds 

WHY THEY CAN…

NEW-FOUND GRIT AND METTLE

There are two ways of looking at a single, indisputable fact: last week Arsenal were second best at Bodo/Glimt and Leeds but ground out two 1-0 wins. Is that evidence of a team riding their luck, for whom reality will eventually bite? Or does victory on those tough trips signal a team developing new grit and mettle?

At Elland Road, Mikel Arteta praised his side’s ‘resilience, fight, character and courage’ and there is a swelling body of evidence that this Arsenal team are less fragile than before.

They are making a habit of winning without playing well, scoring soon after conceding, standing up to tough physical challenges and never settling for less than three points.

Bukayo Saka scored the only goals in back-to-back 1-0 wins against Bodo/Glimt and Leeds

ARTETA’S OVERHAUL

It cannot be a coincidence that several key players are breaking new ground. Martin Odegaard believes he is playing the best football of his career. Gabriel Martinelli has never looked more dangerous. Granit Xhaka looks reborn.

Individuals flourish when they are part of a more cohesive, fluid unit, and, nearly three years after he took over, Arteta’s ideas are now bearing fruit.

There has never been much doubt, at least among his players, of the coach’s tactical ability. But still Arteta needed a ruthless, expensive overhaul and, most importantly, time. Martinelli said recently that the manager’s ideas really started to click towards the end of last season. Odegaard claimed last week: ‘We all understand what Mikel wants from us even more.’ The proof is on the pitch.

Mikel Arteta has been key in getting players to perform at their best for the Gunners this year

YOUTHFUL EXUBERANCE

A winter World Cup and the subsequent jam in every team’s calendar: this title race promises to be more punishing than ever. That could break Arsenal. Or it could perhaps play into their hands.

Arsenal’s starting XI this season are, on average, around three years younger (24 years, 195 days) than their Big Six rivals. That should mean fewer creaking bodies to manage over the coming months. 

And unlike some teams, many of Arsenal’s key players won’t be in Qatar — or won’t expect to play much. Among them, Aaron Ramsdale, Kieran Tierney, Gabriel, Odegaard, Oleksandr Zinchenko, even Martinelli. That can only help their chances of staying the course.

Aaron Ramsdale is among the key Arsenal players who won’t see much game time in Qatar

WHY THEY WON’T…

YOUTHFUL INEXPERIENCE

What might be among Arsenal’s strengths during this slog of a season could also prove to be their undoing.

Even with the arrival of Gabriel Jesus and Zinchenko, they are short on experience, particularly when it comes to chasing Premier League titles.

At centre back, for example, William Saliba (21) and Gabriel (24) show tremendous promise. But both, inevitably, remain raw. Arteta admitted in August that ‘with young players and the development portfolio in our squad, you have to pay a bill’. He meant: at some stage, they are going to make mistakes.

Saliba and Gabriel have already made several apiece, including at Leeds. So far, they have not been too costly. But the debt collectors will surely come calling eventually.

Despite great starts to the season, Gabriel (L) and William Saliba (R) have both made mistakes

FIXTURE CONGESTION

Arsenal are five matches into a run of 13 in 42 days before the World Cup. Their record so far: five wins.

That is a credit to their resilience. But problems are bubbling. As the Sunday-Thursday schedule begins to take hold, Arsenal’s performances have started to stutter. Arteta fears fixture congestion will become ‘even worse’ after the World Cup. That will be another test of his medical and coaching teams. So far, Arsenal have avoided serious injuries to key players. But the likes of Jesus have never played a leading role over a 50-game season.

STRENGTH IN DEPTH

Over these first 10 games, Arteta has made only 10 changes to his starting XI — fewer than all but two Premier League managers. That is a sign of stability but also a useful mask for the fragility on Arsenal’s fringes. Not at full back, where they are stacked with options, but issues elsewhere could prove very costly.

In goal, Arsenal would sorely miss Ramsdale’s distribution. None of Arteta’s other holding midfielders, meanwhile, offer Thomas Partey’s control.

Up front, too, Arsenal can ill-afford to lose one of Jesus, Martinelli or Bukayo Saka. That is no slight on Eddie Nketiah, who has done well whenever given a chance, but simply a reflection of their extraordinary quality.

Saka (L), Gabriel Jesus (C) and Gabriel Martinelli (R) would all be hard to replace for Arsenal