Among the estimated 8.4 million people living with Type 1 Diabetes across the globe in 2021, India ranked in the top ten countries with highest prevalence of the disease, said The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal’s modelling study on 21 September.
According to the researchers, this number is predicted to increase to 13.5-17.4 million people living with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) by 2040.
“Given that prevalence of people with T1D is projected to increase in all countries to up to 17.5 million cases in 2040, our results provide a warning for substantial negative implications for societies and healthcare systems,” University of Sydney’s Professor Graham Ogle said.
“There is an opportunity to save millions of lives in the coming decades by raising the standard of care for T1D and increasing awareness of the signs and symptoms of T1D to enable a 100 per cent rate of diagnosis in all countries,” Ogle said.
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Modelled on childhood, adolescent and adult T1D prevalence in 97 countries, the data was collected over time data from 65 countries.
Apart from this, the researchers analysed mortality data from 37 countries to predict T1D incidence, prevalence, and mortality in 2021 for 201 countries.
As per the study, the estimates were tested for accuracy against real world prevalence data from 15 countries.
The model estimated that 8.4 million individuals worldwide were living with T1D in 2021. Among these 18 per cent were under 20 years old, 64 per cent were between 20-59 years, and 19 per cent were over 60 years.
“These findings have important implications for diagnosis, models of care, and peer support programmes,” Monash University’s Professor Dianna Magliano said.
“Such programmes, in countries where they exist, are almost exclusively designed, and delivered for children and youth with T1D,” Magliano said.
The top 10 countries with the highest estimated T1D prevalence include US, India, Brazil, China, Germany, UK, Russia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Spain which account for 5.08 million (60 per cent) of global cases of T1D, the researchers said.
The researchers estimated that 21 per cent of individuals with T1D live in low income countries (LICs) and lower and middle income countries (LMICs), adding model estimates place global deaths due to T1D at 175,000 in 2021.
They said that among these, 35,000 or 20 per cent were attributed to non-diagnosis, of which 14,500 were in sub-Saharan Africa and 8,700 were in South Asia.
Apart from this, the researchers estimate that an extra 3.1 million people would have been alive in 2021 if they hadn’t died prematurely due to suboptimal care of T1D.
As per the researchers the projected T1D prevalence in 2040 given by the model was is 13.5-17.5 million people, with largest relative increases predicted to occur in LICs and LMICs.
Conservative estimates place the relative increase in the number of people living with T1D by 2040 compared to 2020 at 66 per cent, they added.
With PTI inputs.
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