Biggest longshots to make the Super Bowl: Where Bengals rank after 150-1 preseason betting odds

The Bengals are in the midst of one of the most unlikely Super Bowl runs of all time. Don’t just take my word for it, though. Take that of the sportsbooks.

The Bengals were considered extreme longshots to win the Super Bowl in 2022. They had posted a 6-25-1 record in Zac Taylor’s first two seasons as coach, and second-year quarterback Joe Burrow was coming off a torn ACL that was expected to limit him.

As such, Cincinnati’s preseason odds of winning the Super Bowl were among the NFL’s longest. Only the Texans’ and Lions’ odds to win were longer than the Bengals’ 150-1 odds, per Pro Football Reference.

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And after the Bengals’ up-and-down start coupled with the Ravens’ hot start, they only got longer, as detailed by USA Today’s Lance Pugmire.

At one point early in the season, Cincinnati’s odds to win the Super Bowl were 200/1 at sportsbooks, including the Las Vegas Superbook.

Jay Kornegay, the Superbook’s race and sportsbook director, said he took 17 bets on the Bengals at 200/1, but declined to disclose the total value of the bets.

Now, those 150-1 and 200-1 betting slips are just one game away from potentially cashing. Whether the Bengals pull off the victory or not, they will be one of the most unlikely Super Bowl teams in NFL history.

Since 1977, the Bengals are one of just two teams to make the Super Bowl with preseason odds of at least 150-1, per Pro Football Reference. The other is the 1999 Rams, who rode Kurt Warner’s breakout season to a Super Bowl victory over the Titans.

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Just 12 teams since 1977 have made it to the Super Bowl with preseason odds of 50-1 or longer. The most recent example before the Bengals was the 2016 Falcons, who had 80-1 odds to win the title before Matt Ryan’s MVP season.

Below is a breakdown of the teams that had the longest odds to make the Super Bowl but were able to do it.

T-5. 2001 Patriots, 2003 Panthers & 2015 Panthers (60-1)

These three teams all had 60-1 odds to make the Super Bowl and were able to do it. The 2001 Patriots were the only team that was able to win the big game. They rode an elite defense and the efficient play of second-year quarterback Tom Brady to a title. Drew Bledsoe played a big role in that season as well, as the hit he took from Mo Lewis opened the door for Brady to begin his historic career.

The 2003 Panthers are notable for going from worst in 2001 to first in 2003. They couldn’t quite beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but John Fox helped to execute a rapid roster turnaround and built the Panthers into a solid, well-rounded unit. Few believed that Jake Delhomme would lead the Panthers to the big game, but he was able to do it.

Twelve years later, the Panthers repeated history and made the Super Bowl despite 60-1 odds. This time, they were keyed by a strong defense led by Luke Kuechly and the emergence of an MVP-level quarterback, Cam Newton. They ultimately lost to the Broncos in a grind-it-out defensive battle.

What’s the common thread between these teams? All of them had strong defenses but had questions about how their offenses would look. Their quarterbacks exceeded expectations, which is a common theme among the underdogs to reach the Super Bowl.

4. 1994 Chargers (75-1)

The Chargers finished 8-8 in 1993 but made major changes to their team in 1994. They rode running back Natrone Means — who set a then-team record with 1,350 rushing yards — and a strong defense headlined by Junior Seau and Leslie O’Neal to an AFC West title and eventually, the title of AFC champions.

The Chargers were a balanced squad. They had a top-five offense and a top-10 defense. Their kicker, John Carney, made 34 of his 38 field-goal attempts and led the NFL in scoring. The Chargers lacked a high-end quarterback and started Stan Humphries for most of the year, but he was efficient enough during their playoff run to get them to the Super Bowl.

However, the Chargers were no match for the 49ers in the big game. They were routed 49-26 as Means was shut down and the Chargers’ ball-hawking defense, which had 17 interceptions during the season, couldn’t turn over Steve Young. The 49ers quarterback threw six touchdowns and helped the franchise win its fifth Super Bowl title.

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3. 2016 Falcons (80-1)

The 2016 Falcons were similar to the 1994 Chargers in that they had fairly low expectations despite coming off an 8-8 season the year before. Like the Chargers, the Falcons made incredible progress under coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and they rode that to a Super Bowl appearance.

Matt Ryan was the league MVP in 2016, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Devonta Freeman was a threat running the ball. Julio Jones was a strong No. 1 receiver for Ryan. And most importantly, Quinn’s defense started to gel, with young talents like Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Desmond Trufant making an impact at all levels of the field.

The Falcons very nearly delivered on their 80-1 tickets, as they had a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter of their game against the Patriots. However, they famously blew the massive lead and allowed Tom Brady to win his fifth Super Bowl. Their few holes — defensive inexperience, lack of a true No. 2 receiver and merely decent pass blocking — ultimately did them in and showcased why many viewed them as a Super Bowl longshot before the season.

T-1. 1999 Rams (150-1)

The Rams posted double-digit losses in three consecutive seasons leading up to 1999 and despite trading for Trent Green and acquiring Marshall Faulk, they still were just 100-1 longshots to win the Super Bowl after Green suffered an injury during the preseason.

However, Kurt Warner stepped up in a big way for the Rams and emerged as a quality starter out of nowhere. He threw for 41 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while leading “The Greatest Show on Turf” to a Super Bowl win.

Warner’s rise from a grocery clerk to an NFL-level starting quarterback has inspired a movie — “American Underdog” — and helped get him into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Few anticipated the Rams’ turnaround in earnest when Green went down, so they still rank as the most unlikely team to make the Super Bowl.

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T-1. 2021 Bengals (150-1)

The Bengals have turned in one of the most improbable playoff runs in recent memory. The rise of Burrow has keyed their ability to keep pace with the best teams in the AFC, and they proved that with their win over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Why were the Bengals viewed as such longshots before the season? A few different factors impacted them, including Burrow’s recovery from an ACL tear, the team’s lack of quality blocking and an unproven defense. That said, Burrow’s recovery went great and he has helped to level the playing field with his red-hot play. The defense has also stepped up, as has first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase, but the offensive line remains a problem.

If the Bengals can win the Super Bowl, there will be a great debate about whether they or the 1999 Rams are the greatest underdogs of all time. For now, the Bengals are tied in terms of preseason betting odds, but they are a touch behind the Rams given that they haven’t yet won the Super Bowl. Making it is great, but they have to finish the job to edge the Rams.