Commentary: Real potential for US, China to ‘sleepwalk’ into great power conflict

This counterproposal harkens back to President Xi’s calls for a “new type of major power relations”, which was first proposed to the Obama administration in 2013 and urged the two sides commit to “no conflict and no confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation”.

STILL NO MODUS OPERANDI FOR US-CHINA RELATIONS

At the time, the Obama administration resisted this framework for several reasons, including concerns that Beijing would interpret US endorsement of the concept as blanket acceptance of China’s core interests.

Today, there is zero chance that such a proposition would be accepted in Washington given heightened threat perceptions of China among policymakers and the general public.

Negative perceptions of China have not only spiked in the United States, but throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Beijing’s “wolf warrior diplomacy”, coupled with its rapid military expansion, aggressive positions in the East and South China Seas, and its use of economic coercion have pushed several states, namely Australia, Japan and India. Just a few years ago these sought to maintain good ties with both China and the United States, but now lean decisively toward the latter.

In fact, Beijing’s heavy-handed behaviour in the Indo-Pacific has served as a principal force for the growing profile of the Quad and the creation of the AUKUS security pact, both of which China has condemned as US-led containment schemes that threaten peace in the region.

It’s unclear how much self-reflection, if any, is happening in Beijing. While there must be sober diplomats and policy experts who realise China’s wolf warrior approach has backfired in many cases, there is likely little, if any, space for such views to be expressed.

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