Russia’s close ties with China unlikely to impact its India policy

While it appears that Russia and China have overcome the fallouts of Sino-Soviet conflict, the reality presents a different picture as Moscow continues to safeguard its strategic partnership with both New Delhi and Hanoi.

The term alliance is often loosely used in international politics. Advanced alliances include “a common defence policy, integrated military commands, joint military placements for defence and military base exchanges”. Critics allege that the West have over the years pushed Russia closer to China. However, simultaneously Russian economic footprints in India are expanding amid expectations that bilateral trade could touch or cross 50 bn USD in FY 2023-24. The Russian pivot to Asia is not the Russian pivot to China alone. West Asia-India-SE Asia have significance in Russian foreign policy.

Russia and China do not have a formal military alliance that will obligate a party to support the other in a conflict. China is cautious about supplying weapons to Russia during the Ukraine war. Neither Russia nor China wants to sign an alliance pact as formal alliances implies legal obligations. Russia remains a key defence supplier to India and this partnership includes joint production of state-of-the-art defence equipment like BrahMos. Vietnam possesses Soviet-Russian weaponry and Rosneft has significant investments in Vietnam’s oil fields.

Prof John Mearsheimer is of the opinion that “a country can be dragged into another’s conflict (fear of entrapment), and a partner may not comply with the treaty clause (fear of abandonment)”. Several countries globally prefer a strategy of non-alliance partnership, rather than a binding commitment. The Chinese peace proposals for ending the Ukraine conflict are yet to yield any results.

Moscow fears it would get entrapped in China’s territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific and resource rich Far-East. Unwarranted migration from China into the Russian Far East has been closely monitored.

Beijing’s trade with Russia is two per cent of its global trade. And Beijing is unlikely to sacrifice its economic interests in the West.Russian academic Alexander Lukin suggests that Russia must support China but conditionally. He argues Russia should support China in Asia on a reciprocal basis. Russia is unlikely to back China’s territorial ambitions in Asia either along the Line of Actual Control or in SE Asia or Indian Ocean Region. Moscow considers India as a pillar of its global outreach and continued to supply arms notwithstanding the Galwan conflict. Over the decades it has also backed India’s position on Jammu and Kashmir including at the UN Security Council. India, on its part, continues to expect that Moscow pursues its traditional approach in South Asia, symbolising bilateral ties that have stood the test of time.