KHARTOUM: Sudan has degenerated into a battleground for two rival generals, but they are backed by complex webs of international alliances with conflicting interests that could imperil the country’s future, analysts say.
Missiles, air strikes and gunfire have been ceaseless in Khartoum since last Saturday as army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan wages war with his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who leads the powerful Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group.
According to the United Nations, more than 180 people have been killed and 1,800 injured in the fighting between the one-time partners and authors of a 2021 coup.
With a long history of coups, the impoverished North African nation enjoys a strategic location and has long been courted for its natural resources.
Russia and the United Arab Emirates – in addition to earmarking billions for new Red Sea ports – are both involved in RSF-controlled Sudanese gold mining, according to experts.
The country’s sizeable gold deposits have made Daglo – commonly known as Hemeti – rich, and in the process lined the pockets of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary force, according to the United States, as well as the UAE, Sudan’s main gold market.
GULF STATES TO “PICK A WINNING SIDE”
Abu Dhabi’s approach to the current conflict is best described as “pragmatism, pushed to the level of cynical indifference”, a specialist told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“If the war drags out, it’s not necessarily a bad thing from either a Russian or an Emirati perspective. It lets the UAE keep its influence, which it couldn’t do with a conventional power structure,” he added.
As opposed to the “classical, traditional” approach of Egypt – which favours the military – “the UAE has been much closer to Russia in its tactics”, funnelling “shady trades” through Dubai.
But like its fellow Gulf heavyweight Saudi Arabia, the UAE is unlikely to antagonise either general, both of whom have served Gulf interests in the past.
“Both Burhan and Hemeti fought the Houthis” as part of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015, and Riyadh offers “no real advantage for either” general, said Eric Reeves, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.
“Gulf states … will pick a winning side, but wait until victory is clear,” he added.
EUROPEAN SUPPORT?
Hemeti’s RSF emerged from the Janjaweed militia unleashed by former dictator Omar al-Bashir against non-Arab minorities in the western Darfur region starting in 2003, drawing accusations of war crimes.
The camel-herder-turned-commander’s power is the strongest in Sudan’s west, which served as a rear base to send RSF troops to fight in the conflict in neighbouring Libya, according to experts.
In a TV interview a year after the 2021 coup, Hemeti thanked Italy for its “continued technical training” but denied receiving European support to stymie irregular migration by cutting off passage to Libya.
Sudan’s west, where the RSF also holds positions on the Chadian border, is still “awash in weapons”, according to Reeves, and is critical for Hemeti, who will try “to use his connection to Chad and his power in Darfur to secure a supply line”.
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