2024 GOP presidential nomination: Trump takes massive 37% lead over DeSantis among likely Republican primary voters

According to the poll results released on Monday, Trump enjoys robust support among every demographic group surveyed. A staggering 54% of likely Republican voters back Trump, compared to a distant 17% for Governor DeSantis. Trump’s commanding 37 percentage point lead over DeSantis is the largest recorded so far in the ongoing primary polls.

This poll comes amidst a series of surveys since mid-March tracked by Real Clear Politics, where Trump has consistently held the lead among Republican primary voters. However, what sets this particular poll apart is the significant increase in Trump’s lead, growing from single digits to a commanding margin, while DeSantis’s popularity has waned.

Reuters

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks on as he speaks during a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 29, 2023. REUTERS/Lindsay DeDario

Governor DeSantis, recognizing the need to regain traction in the race, is planning a major economic speech in New Hampshire on Monday. The state is an essential battleground for presidential hopefuls and holds the nation’s first primary, making it a critical venue for candidates looking to gain momentum.

Leads among both men and women

The Siena poll reveals that Trump is not only leading across all demographic groups but is also commanding support in key areas that are traditionally critical for successful Republican candidates. He leads among both men and women, securing endorsements from every age group and income bracket. Trump’s appeal extends across various geographical regions, including voters from rural areas, suburbs, and cities in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and West.Furthermore, the former president enjoys significant backing from voters irrespective of their educational background or political leanings. Trump’s support is particularly strong among those who did not attend college, as well as liberal, moderate, and conservative Republicans.

Reuters

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he holds a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 29, 2023. REUTERS/Lindsay DeDario

However, there are areas where Trump’s lead is relatively weaker. Among White college graduates, Trump holds a 37% to 25% advantage over DeSantis. Voters aged 30-44 also favor Trump, but by a smaller margin of 41% to DeSantis’s 28%. Additionally, liberal and moderate Republicans show greater support for Trump at 35%, while 17% back DeSantis.The poll, conducted from July 23 to July 27, encompassed a critical period in the news cycle, coinciding with the filing of a superseding indictment related to Trump’s handling of classified documents. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.96 percentage points, which gives further credibility to the substantial lead Trump enjoys over his competitors.

Reuters

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 29, 2023. REUTERS/Lindsay DeDario

As the 2024 Republican primary race continues to unfold, these poll results indicate the strength of Donald Trump’s continued appeal within the party’s base. The dynamics of the race are likely to evolve over time, and the upcoming months will provide a clearer picture of how the Republican field shapes up for the highly anticipated nomination. For Governor DeSantis, the major economic speech in New Hampshire could prove pivotal in reshaping his trajectory and reinvigorating his campaign.