The opening round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs begins Monday and with it comes a world of fresh opportunities for hockey bettors.
A few trends from the 2022-23 season to consider when placing wagers on individual games this post-season:
• Moneyline favourites won more than 62 per cent of the time in the regular season with listed underdogs earning the W slightly less than 38 per cent contests.
• Home teams won 52.4 per cent of games compared to 47.6 per cent of road teams. Road favourites were the most consistent moneyline winners, cashing in 63.3 per cent of games.
• When it came to totals, overs and unders were split almost evenly down the middle with overs having a minuscule 0.4 per cent edge.
How might the tighter checking, faster paced style of playoff hockey change betting trends this post-season? We’ll have to wait to find out.
There’s no shortage of markets on which to bet during the playoffs, so let’s look at some notable odds heading into the post-season including the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe winners, some notable props, plus where to find some value in each opening-round series.
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STANLEY CUP ODDS
Odds and relative value will vary slightly depending on the sportsbook you use, but one thing is clear: the Bruins are the overwhelming frontrunners to make it out of the Eastern Conference and hoist the Stanley Cup.
Colorado began the 2022 post-season as the chalky pick at around +350 and the Avs came through for their riders. Can Boston make it back-to-back years where the favourite goes all the way?
One potential disadvantage (that’s merely a superstition, really) is the fact the Bruins had the best regular season record. It has been a full decade since the Presidents’ Trophy winners won the Stanley Cup in the same year.
If you prefer to widen your net, instead of picking one team to win it all you can narrow it down to betting on the winning conference and/or winning division.
WINNING CONFERENCE
East -167 | West +147
WINNING DIVISION
Atlantic +186 | Metropolitan +255 | Central +340 | Pacific +425
DraftKings is offering a prop specifically for those who wish to follow or fade the three remaining Canadian teams.
It has been 30 years since a Canadian franchise won the Stanley Cup. Montreal broke a decade-long slump by becoming the first Canadian club to advance to the Cup Final when they did so in 2021 when they competed in the defunct North Division during that unique season.
Now let’s look at each first-round series and some corresponding odds.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Bruins (-330) vs. Florida Panthers (+265)
It’s no surprise the Panthers are the biggest underdogs of the opening round, but an optimist would point out Florida split the four-game season series with Boston. The home team won every game and at least seven goals were scored in each contest so be mindful of the daily totals.
Most likely outcome based on the odds: Bruins in five +300
Toronto Maple Leafs (-160) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (+140)
These teams find themselves in familiar territory with Toronto having home-ice advantage over Tampa. The Maple Leafs, who haven’t won a post-season series in the salary cap era, blew a 3-2 series lead in 2022 and the Lightning advanced in seven. Tampa was 18-22-1 on the road this season compared to 24-15-2 at Amalie Arena this season.
Most likely outcome based on the odds: Leafs in seven +400
Sports Interaction also has a handful of player props listed for this matchup that pits eight of the series’ top star against one another in various categories.
Carolina Hurricanes (-210) vs. New York Islanders (+175)
Carolina took three of four in the regular season series with all games ending in regulation. The Isles also only managed three total goals in those three losses.
Most likely outcome based on the odds: Hurricanes in six +375
New Jersey Devils (-130) vs. New York Rangers (+110)
The closest thing to a toss-up series we have in the first round. The Devils won three of four in the regular season, but each game was closely contested. Two were settled in overtime and the only game decided by more than one goal was due to a late empty-netter.
Most likely outcome(s) based on the odds: Devils in six/seven, or Rangers in seven all +450
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Edmonton Oilers (-250) vs. Los Angeles Kings (+210)
Of all 16 playoff teams, Edmonton had the best over/under record at 46-27-9 (meaning 46 games went over the set total, 27 went under and nine ended up a push). Not entirely surprising considering no team scored more goals than the Oilers who boast the NHL’s top two point producers.
Most likely outcome based on the odds: Oilers in five +320
Vegas Golden Knights (-160) vs. Winnipeg Jets (+140)
These teams have not played each other since December and Winnipeg could be going up against a former Jets backup goalie in Laurent Brossoit, who has not lost in regulation this season.
Most likely outcome(s) based on the odds: Vegas in five/six both +400
Colorado Avalanche (-280) vs. Seattle Kraken (+230)
Seattle is set for its first playoff appearance and are significant underdogs to the defending champs, however the Kraken went an impressive 48-34 on the puckline this past season, which is the best mark for any playoff team.
Most likely outcome(s) based on the odds: Avs in five/six both +325
Dallas Stars (-150) vs. Minnesota Wild (+130)
Most likely outcome(s) based on the odds: Stars in six/seven both +425
CONN SMYTHE TROPHY
While the Hart (Connor McDavid), Vezina (Linus Ulmark), Calder (Matty Beniers) and Norris (Erik Karlsson) trophies are all seemingly locked up, the playoff MVP is not so cut and dry.
It can’t be too surprising to see the two most important players on the best team in the league, plus the best player in all of hockey with the three shortest odds, followed by the two best players on the defending champions and Western Conference favourites.
A forward has not won the Conn Smythe since Ryan O’Reilly did it as captain of the St. Louis Blues in 2019. Defencemen have won it in two of the past three years with Victor Hedman in 2020 and Cale Makar one year ago. Andrei Vasilevskiy won in 2021 became the first netminder since Jonathan Quick in 2012. J.S. Giguere in 2003 is the last player to be named playoff MVP on a non-Cup-winning team.
(Betting trends and records via Covers; series moneyline odds and exact outcomes via Bet365; Conn Smythe odds via DraftKings; all other odds via Sports Interaction unless otherwise noted; listed odds as of Saturday, April 15 and subject to change)
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